Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – December 13
- Monetary Divergence: ECB and SNB reduced rates to address economic slowdowns, while Fed signals a hawkish cut with a 97% probability of easing next week.
- Sticky Inflation: U.S. core CPI rose 3.3% YoY in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures, especially in shelter costs.
- Mixed Market Trends: Nasdaq hit a record high due to mega-cap tech, but broader indices struggled; Treasury yields climbed following inflation data.
- Asian Outlook: China announced fiscal measures with limited clarity, and Japan’s BoJ likely postpones rate hikes to early 2025.
- Global Policy Shifts: Turkey is expected to cut rates by 250 bps, while Brazil’s central bank raised rates to counter inflationary risks.
Global monetary policy remains mixed as central banks navigate inflationary pressures, growth slowdowns, and geopolitical shifts. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) eased rates amid economic concerns, while the U.S. Federal Reserve signals a hawkish rate cut next week. Inflation in the U.S. remains sticky, with November’s core CPI showing resilience, pushing Treasury yields higher. Asian markets reacted to China’s promise of fiscal stimulus, though details were scant. Japan will likely delay its next interest rate hike to January, while Turkey and Brazil diverge, with Turkey expected to ease and Brazil maintaining a hawkish stance.
Equity markets showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq reaching record highs due to tech sector strength, while most other indices dipped. Global bond markets sold off with the yield on the U.S. 10-year rising by over 20 bps for the week. Oil prices rebounded but face long-term bearish pressures. Central banks in emerging markets, including Latin America and Asia, are aligning easing cycles cautiously amid global headwinds.
Source: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2024/12/14/global-risk-monitor-week-in-review-december-13/
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