Shorting the U.S. Consumer Is Death
- Retail Sales Growth: Retail sales increased 0.4% in September, exceeding expectations of 0.3%.
- Key Sectors: Clothing sales rose 1.5%, while restaurant and bar sales grew 1.0%.
- GDP Outlook: The Atlanta Fed raised its Q3 GDP growth estimate to 3.4%, up from 3.2%.
- Gasoline Prices: A 12-cent drop in gasoline prices provided consumers with more disposable income.
- Federal Reserve: The Fed is expected to implement a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in November and December.
- Consumer Sentiment: Election-related uncertainty is impacting consumer spending patterns.
- Spending Trends: While consumers spent more on essentials, big-ticket items like electronics and appliances saw declines.
The Census Bureau reported today that U.S. retail sales rose by 0.4% in September, reflecting consumer spending on a wide range of goods and services. Lower gasoline prices freed up more disposable income, leading to increased spending at restaurants, bars, clothing stores, and online retailers. The uptick in retail sales suggests continued strong economic growth, prompting economists to predict a smaller interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming months. However, concerns remain over inflation, election-related uncertainty, and signs of cautious consumer behavior in some sectors.
Source: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2024/10/17/shorting-the-u-s-consumer-is-death/
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