Russian LNG exports scuppered. Eyes on China?
Russia has just suspended LNG exports from its Arctic LNG 2 gas terminal – indeed, it’s suspended liquefaction. Not a helpful state of affairs for Putin, when Russia obviously depends a great deal on sales of commodities (and, errr, of surface-to-air missiles - remind us, Ayatollah, how they are working out?**).
This is being reported as a result of sanctions, as follows: although it’s possible to transload LNG at sea (from Russian vessels to non-sanctioned LNG carriers of other nations, e.g. UAE), LNG is many times more difficult to play games with than oil – which, frankly, you can transport in an old Coke bottle. Their sanctions-busting games on LNG have run their course, and they are giving up.
Maybe. But there’s a counter-argument you’ll hear. It’s actually a lot easier to offload at a regasification port, and then have the cargo re-loaded onto another vessel. All that needs to happen, the argument runs, is for China (say) to offer this service for its usual modest fee. This being the case, the shut-in must be for technical reasons, most likely to do with the shortage of LNG vessels capable of taking on icy waters.
I’d throw another complication in for good measure. Russia is known to depend utterly on western technology for all manner of industrial purposes, some of which can’t simply be rustled up by the Chinese (or Indians). Oil- & gas-field tech is one such area. For a relatively modern facility (i.e. not of solid old Soviet design) like and LNG liquefaction plant, I’d be wondering if they’ve run out of spares for something potentially quite basic.
We see this phenomenon at work further downstream: see this recent post for a note on how Russia’s oil infrastructure is suffering for want of a basic piece of kit like the non-return valve.
So even if the LNG shipping aspect isn’t an insuperable problem, sanctions might still be biting in other ways. How can they not – eventually? That said: how long can Ukraine wait?
ND
__________
** and, err, how they feel about having correspondingly less SAM cover in Crimea?
Source: http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2024/10/russian-lng-exports-scuppered-eyes-on.html
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