Biden Rising

President Biden has fully recovered from the downturn in his election prospects, as observed in the prediction markets after the Special Counsel described him as a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

The rebound coincides with the recent poll in Pennsylvania giving him a 10-point lead over the former president,

The good news for President Joe Biden comes in the form of a two-horse race against former President Donald Trump. After landing within the margin of error against the 45th president in February, the 46th president has more than doubled the 4.0% margin of error (MOE) in this survey with a 48-38% percent advantage. An additional 13% favored “someone else,” while just 1% indicated that they did not know. – PoliticsPA

However, when third-party candidates are considered, Biden’s lead narrows to within the margin of error.

We have no doubt the former president will try to conflate today’s market volatility, which we expect to continue, with Biden’s rising poll numbers – “the market is tanking because it’s anticipating a Biden victory in November” – for example. 

We also expect geopolitical events to continue to heat up, as the markets began to price in today.   

Rising gas prices are political death, so look for the shenanigans by the bad actors in foreign lands who would like to see Trump win to continue. 

Gold Price

In our March 9th post,  What’s Up With the Gold Price?, we dismissed the notion the rise in the gold price could be solely attributed to expected Fed rate cuts and offered up the following,  

Nobody knows for sure, but our best guess is it’s a safe haven play with expected domestic and geopolitical instability to increase as the year progresses.   Stay frosty, folks.  

Today, the market woke up.