What Happened to the Homicide Rate after the Supreme Court Bruen Decision?

Chart produced with tools provided at Real Time Crime Index. Time of Bruen decision added.

On June 23, 2022, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) issued a decision in N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n v. Bruen. Prior to the Bruen decision, Courts of Appeal in Progressive dominated Circuits, such as the Ninth and Second circuits, had refused to honor Second Amendment precedent established in the Heller and McDonald decisions. Bruen admonished the lower courts for creating a procedure to treat the Second Amendment as a second class right. Bruen created a simple test to determine if a statute was allowed by the Second Amendment.

The Bruen case clarified that “bear” in the “right to keep and bear arms” protected the right to be armed in public places with arms which can be carried by or on a person. The limitations to this right were stated to be the same limitations as they were understood by the public in 1791 when the Bill of Rights was ratified.  Anti-Second Amendment pundits predicted more violent crime and homicides.

As of the latest numbers from October of 2025, the 12 month running average of violent crime has dropped 14% since June of 2022. The drop in murders is even more pronounced at 39%. The numbers are from the tools provided by the Real Time Crime Index. The index does not track all crime. It tracks a sample using the numbers provided by 570 agencies. The relative proportions of the sample are said to track within 2% of proportions of FBI numbers in the Uniform Crime Reports.  Agreement to within 2% of overall proportions, in this sort of measurement, is quite good. If the Real Time Crime Index shows a rise or fall in crime numbers, it essentially mimics what is happening in the FBI numbers. The 570 reporting agencies cover over half of the crimes reported in the United States.

After the initial wave of anti-Second Amendment propaganda subsided, approval of the Bruen decision returned to about 2/3 of the respondents. The Second Amendment is popular in the United States of America.

The drop in violent crime and in homicides is coincident with implementation of the Bruen decision. It started before President Trump was elected to his second term. It is also coincident to the election of a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, which placed some restraint on the excesses of the Biden administration. 2022 is also coincident with a retreat from some of the anti-police and pro-criminal policies pushed by what became known as “Soros” prosecutors such as Kimberly Gardner in Saint Louis, Missouri.

Cause and effect are not easy to determine. A return to the rule of law clearly works to reduce crime.  The far-left notion of police as the cause, rather then the cure for crime has not held up in real-world situations. It cannot be proven the Bruen decision was instrumental in reducing violent crime and homicides. The fact that violent crime and homicides fell after the Bruen decision make it unlikely restoration of rights protected by the Second Amendment increases violent crime. It is more likely restoration of rights protected by the Second Amendment is a contributor to lower violent crime and homicide rates.

©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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