Democracy or Disaster? How Washington’s Venezuela Gambit Could Backfire

As Washington escalates its confrontation with Caracas, the threat of a new U.S.-engineered war in the Western Hemisphere is rapidly coming into focus. Drawing on the disastrous precedents of Iraq and Afghanistan, critics argue that any American military intervention in Venezuela would almost certainly unleash a resilient and deeply embedded insurgency. At the centre of that resistance stands Colombia’s National Liberation Army (ELN), a seasoned Marxist-Leninist guerrilla force with decades of battlefield experience, entrenched cross-border networks, and close operational ties to Venezuela’s security apparatus. Far from facing a weak or isolated adversary, U.S. forces would confront an organised insurgent movement capable of turning an invasion into yet another open-ended counterinsurgency quagmire.

Whilst talk show host and self-proclaimed low-IQ analyst Jason Rantz informs the American public on CNN that “There has been no evidence indicating that they are not, in fact, drug boats” in Venezuela, these dangers are no longer theoretical. Over the past 48 hours, U.S.–Venezuela tensions have surged after President Donald Trump claimed that American forces carried out a strike on a Venezuelan coastal facility allegedly used to load drug-smuggling boats, producing what he described as a “major explosion” at a dock area. Trump offered no evidence to support the accusation, declined to specify whether the operation was conducted by the U.S. military or the CIA, and withheld the location of the strike.

Venezuelan authorities have not confirmed the attack, while the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies have remained conspicuously silent. If verified, the operation would mark the first acknowledged U.S. land-based strike on Venezuelan territory under the banner of the so-called “war on drugs,” a justification critics say has long served as a pretext for regime-change operations, violations of sovereignty, extra-judicial killings, and the militarisation of Latin America.

VIDEO: Trump announced during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago with Israeli Prime Minister and “wanted” war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu, that “the U.S. struck a dock area in Venezuela.” (Source: The Washington Post)

.
In a recent statement, Ozempic Mike Pompeo asserted on Fox News that Socialism is the culprit behind Venezuela’s downfall, a nation that was once among the wealthiest in Latin America. He conveniently left out the fact that the US has been enforcing severe unilateral sanctions on Venezuela since 2005, and upgraded by Trump in 2017, for the sole aim of crippling its economy, resulting in the deaths of 40,000 individuals in just the first year. (Trump Executive Order 13808, 13827, 13835, 13850, 13884)

The once-familiar rhetoric of “bringing democracy” has long since collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions. From Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan to Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Ukraine, and Palestine, U.S.-led or U.S.-backed interventions have consistently delivered devastation rather than democratic renewal. Framed as humanitarian or pro-democracy missions, these campaigns have in reality been driven by economic and geopolitical calculations, control over resources, strategic chokepoints, arms markets, and regional dominance, while leaving behind shattered infrastructure, mass displacement, and permanent instability. Far from quick or decisive victories, these interventions have repeatedly trapped both U.S. forces and local militaries in grinding conflicts, producing staggering civilian casualties and long-term blowback that undermines regional and global security alike.

As Washington eyes Venezuela, the spectre of prolonged guerrilla war and regional instability grows, echoing decades of failed U.S. interventions. Today, we are highlighting Benjamin R. Young’s latest piece for Compact magazine, in which he cautions about the impending Venezuelan insurgency.

Benjamin R. Young reports for Compact Magazine…

The Coming Venezuelan Insurgency

At the height of the Iraq War, US forces confronted a relentless insurgency waged by fighters from a wide range of political movements and religious orientations, including ex-Baathists, Salafists, Wahhabis, and Shi’a militants. Less understood at the time was the role played by a neighbouring state in facilitating this onslaught. A cross-border network quietly funnelled hardcore Islamist militants through so-called “rat lines” into Iraq with the explicit aim of inflaming the conflict. At the centre of this effort was Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s now-deposed dictator, who hoped to use the chaos of neighbouring Iraq to deter US intervention in his own country.

A similar dynamic looms in the Western Hemisphere with the threat of a US invasion of Venezuela. Should American troops enter Venezuela, they would face an insurgency that could prove to be more organised, more experienced, and no less lethal than the one encountered in Iraq. The Colombian Marxist-Leninist rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), is anti-American, battle-hardened, and deeply embedded in regional smuggling networks. Unlike the Islamist fighters of Iraq, the ELN has several decades of fighting experience in inhospitable terrains and enforces a disciplined command structure. The group also enjoys cross-border sanctuary in Colombia and Venezuela, and maintains close coordination with Nicolás Maduro’s security forces. Any American deployment on Venezuelan soil would almost certainly provoke a prolonged and punishing insurgency from the ELN and its affiliates.

Founded in the early 1960s by radical Catholic priests inspired by the Cuban Revolution, the ELN was trained in Fidel Castro’s Cuba under the influence of Che Guevara’s foco theory, which envisioned small guerrilla bands sparking a broader revolution. From the outset, the ELN fused elements of liberation theology with a Marxist-Leninist ideological framework. Led by radical Roman Catholics with a revolutionary anti-imperialist flair, the group preached social justice for the impoverished rural dwellers of the Colombian countryside while also railing against multinational corporations and oligarchic elites in Bogotá. The rebels built alliances with local labour unions and peasant associations frustrated by what they saw as the Colombian central government’s failure to address their daily needs. In the late 1970s, facing off against right-wing paramilitary death squads and equipped with outdated weaponry, the ELN began to finance military operations with extortion and kidnapping operations, which it called “revolutionary taxes,” as well as turning to illicit activities such as the cocaine trade.

Amid its protracted guerrilla war against the Colombian National Army, the group reached out to Hugo Chávez’s nascent regime in the early 2000s and found a safe haven in neighbouring Venezuela. In addition to sharing their ideological commitments to anti-imperialism and revolutionary socialism, Chávez found the ELN and other Colombian leftist rebel groups to be a useful buffer against the US-aligned Colombian government. The ELN collaborated with Venezuelan military officials and became enmeshed in cross-border drug trafficking and illegal mining operations. The alliance served the interests of both the Venezuelan government and the ELN, delivering strategic, ideological, and financial benefits to each side.

When the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia or FARC, once the country’s dominant leftist rebel group, demobilised in 2016, the ELN seized the moment to expand its territory and its ranks. Now present in more than a fifth of Colombia’s municipalities and firmly established in three Venezuelan states, the group is arguably at the height of its power, with more than 6,000 members. In January 2025, the ELN launched a major military offensive in Catatumbo, one of Colombia’s most prolific cocaine-producing regions, targeting remnants of the FARC. The fighting forced roughly 50,000 civilians to flee the area, fearing for their lives.

As the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Caracas, the ELN has not idly stood by. In response to the mounting “imperialist intervention,” the group announced a 72-hour “armed strike” in Colombia. Across the country, the ELN carried out attacks on police stations and military bases. This assault by the rebels, which employed explosive-laden commercial drones, killed six Colombian soldiers and underscored the group’s growing technological sophistication.

From Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan, the US military has repeatedly struggled against insurgencies. In all of these wars, US forces have failed to achieve decisive victories against irregular adversaries, regardless of whether that is because they are constrained by laws of war and ethical norms or stymied by the fundamental difficulty of identifying and defeating clandestine fighters. Entering into another military conflict with a formidable insurgency risk would plunge America into yet another forever war built on the flimsiest of pretexts.

READ MORE VENEZUELA NEWS AT: 21st Century Wire VENEZUELA Files

SUPPORT OUR INDEPENDENT MEDIA PLATFORM – BECOME A MEMBER @21WIRE.TV

VISIT OUR TELEGRAM CHANNEL

21st Century Wire is an alternative news agency designed to enlighten, inform and educate readers about world events which are not always covered in the mainstream media.

Source: https://21stcenturywire.com/2025/12/30/democracy-or-disaster-how-washingtons-venezuela-gambit-could-backfire/