10 Important Stories From 08/17/18 Box Scores: Young Starters We’re Buying (Buehler/Flaherty), How To Proceed With Bigger Names (Hamels/Ray) & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There were a pair of NL Cy Young candidates who took the mound yesterday and starred:

• Aaron Nola (PHI) – Beat the Mets allowing 1 ER on 3 H and 1 BB, striking out 11, over 7.0 IP
• Max Scherzer (WAS) – Got W over Marlins with 6.0 shutout IP allowing 5 H and 1 BB with 7 K

Alex Bregman filled the box score, going 1-3 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R and 2 SB.  Manny Machado provided a boost to the Dodgers offense, going 2-5 with 2 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R.  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s dive into the box scores and take a look:

1) Is there something “wrong” with Noah Syndergaard…
He’s now made four starts since returning from the DL with an illness and has allowed 3+ ER in all of them, after allowing 4 ER on 8 H and 2 BB, striking out 5, over 5.2 IP.  Over this stretch he’s allowed 14 ER on 27 H and 6 BB, striking out 22, over 26.0 IP.  Obviously something just seems off, though he entered the day with a 58.1% groundball rate in August (before 10 groundballs vs. 2 fly balls yesterday) and a 14.9% SwStr% (15 swinging strikes yesterday).  Throw in continued strong control and on the surface there would be little reason for concern.  He has struggled with a 63.6% strand rate, and with all the skills still there it’s just a matter of him rediscovering his footing.  The answer is that there’s no concerns and when healthy he’s a Top 15-20 starter with Top 10 potential.

2) Is it time to take notice of Rafael Ortega…
Who you ask?  He’s settled in as the leadoff hitter for the Marlins and after going 2-4 yesterday he’s hitting .313 with 4 SB and 5 R in just 8 games.  He was caught stealing yesterday, but with 4 K vs. 3 BB in 32 AB he deserves to be on your radar.  The left-handed hitter was hitting .275 with 2 HR and 12 SB over 280 AB at Triple-A prior to his recall, and it’s obvious that if you are looking for power he’s not a player to focus on.  At the same time he has a strong approach (9.5% strikeout rate, 13.4% walk rate prior to his recall) and has the speed to make an impact (he’s stolen 30+ bases in a minor league season before, and had 26 SB in 472 PA last season at Triple-A).  The Marlins have no reason not to take a look at him and see if he can settle in atop their order, and they also clearly have given him the green light to run.  With an ability to get on base, that’s key.  He’s not going to garner much attention, but he’s worth grabbing off the wire if you are looking for a SB boost down the stretch.

3) Maybe Cole Hamels just needed a change of scenery…
Taking on the Pirates he tossed 7.0 shutout innings allowing 5 H and 2 BB, striking out 3, to earn the W.  In four starts since the trade he’s allowed 2 ER on 16 H and 6 BB, striking out 23, over 25.0 IP.  Yesterday he was a groundball monster, with 16 groundballs vs. 2 fly balls, representing one of the biggest differences since the trade (he had a 43.4% groundball rate while in Texas, but entered the day with a 52.3% mark).  In the handful of starts he’s been using his fourseam fastball significantly more (31.03% in August entering the day), so you have to wonder if that’s helped sparked his success.  Of course he also had a 43.2% Hard% over his first three starts with Chicago, yet a .256 BABIP and 82.4% strand rate.  Obviously there are some positive signs, but until he gets that mark down to a more reasonable level there’s going to continue to be significant risk.

4) Brian Johnson earns W in return to rotation…
Making the start against the Rays Johnson allowed 3 ER on 5 H and 2 BB, striking out 2, over 5.2 IP, and with just 6 swinging strikes it’s hard to call the performance impressive.  That said he has been much more impressive as a starter (he entered the day with a 3.21 ERA and 41 K over 42.0 IP) than as a reliever (4.94 ERA over 31.0 IP) on the season.  Of course, regardless of the role a 9.1% SwStr% and 38.1% groundball rate represent significant red flags.  Thus far he has generated strikeouts, but is hardly a lock to do so, and he also has struggled with keeping the ball in the ballpark (1.36 HR/9 entering the day).  Pitching for the Red Sox is going to make him seem like a usable option, but he’s nothing more than a streaming option and even then he’s tough to trust.

5) Should we be giving up on Sean Newcomb…
While Kyle Freeland (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 9 K) was dominating, Newcomb took one on the chin allowing 7 ER on 9 H and 3 BB, striking out 5, over 5.1 IP.  Overall the Rockies racked up 11 R on 16 H, with four players getting 3 H apiece (led by Ian Desmond, who went 3-5 with 5 RBI and 1 R).  For Newcomb he’s now allowed 12 ER over 9.1 IP in his past two starts, and it’s easy to envision the regression only continuing.  Keep in mind that he entered the day with a .259 BABIP and 77.7% strand rate, which when coupled with some control issues (4.23 BB/9) and a lack of an extreme groundball rate (45.7% entering the day, 3 groundballs vs. 8 fly balls yesterday) indicates that his struggles could easily continue.  There shouldn’t be any kind of inning limit (he threw 157.2 innings last season), which helps his cause but that doesn’t mean he’s a given to thrive.  While there’s still upside, consider him more of a plug and play option off your bench (or streamer depending on your waiver wire) as opposed to a starter to full trust down the stretch.

6) Can Nick Delmonico develop into a viable option…
He enjoyed a big day yesterday, going 2-4 with 1 HR, 5 RBI and 1 R, though he’s still hitting just .227 over 185 AB in the Majors.  The team clearly views him as a platoon player, though he entered the day with a career SLG of .414 against LHP and .409 against RHP, so it’s possible that he develops into a little bit more than that.  At the same time in 322 PA in the Majors he has struggled with swings and misses (11.7% SwStr%, 13.1% in ’18) and has generally failed to hit the ball hard (29.8% Hard%).  There is a little bit of power, and he should improve upon his 5.3% HR/FB entering the day, but is that enough?  If there are a slew of right-handed pitchers on the schedule it’s possible he’s a solid deep league gamble, but outside of that there will likely be better options available to you.

7) Is Tyler Austin figuring things out in Minnesota…
It’s nice to see him getting a little bit of an opportunity, and he delivered yesterday going 2-3 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 R (he hit one of two home runs across Matt Boyd, who continues to allow far too many fly balls to trust him).  It’s been just five games, though he has gone 4-16 with 2 HR, 4 RBI and 2 R offering a little bit of hope.  At the same time he’s struck out 7 times vs. 2 BB, which is just more of the same for Austin as he entered the day with an 18.5% SwStr% over 284 PA in his Major League career.  It would be easy to point towards the inconsistent playing time, so it will be very interesting to see if he can cut that down a little bit assuming he remains in the lineup every day.  He’s shown his power potential this season (10 HR over 137 AB), so if he can cut down the strikeouts even a little bit there would be significant value.  With a 15.7% SwStr% at Triple-A this season, does anyone believe though?  Think of him more along the lines of Joey Gallo, though not with as much HR upside.

8) Jack Flaherty shuts down to the Brewers…
He tossed 6.0 shutout innings allowing 3 H and 3 BB, striking out 7.  He’s now struck out 7 or more in six straight starts and has been tremendous for three straight starts (2 ER over 19.0 IP, winning all three starts).  Overall he has a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 109.1 IP, showing an ability to generate swings and misses (he entered the day with a 12.9% SwStr% and had 13 swinging strikes yesterday) to go along with solid control (3.14 BB/9) and a solid, but unspectacular, groundball rate (42.2% entering the day, though he had 8 groundballs vs. 3 fly balls yesterday).  There is some obvious risk, entering with an 81.0% strand rate and .262 BABIP, so don’t be surprised if there’s a few bumps down the stretch (though that doesn’t mean the overall outlook isn’t positive, especially for 2019 and beyond).

9) A dominating performance from Walker Buehler…
Taking on the Mariners Buehler made one mistake, a home run to Ryan Healy (1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R), otherwise he was spectacular.  Going 6.0 IP he allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 2 BB, striking out 8, to improve to 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 87.1 IP in the Majors.  Over his past four starts he’s allowed 4 ER over 25.1 IP and having entered the day with a .276 BABIP and 76.2% strand rate there’s no obvious reason to think that he’s going to regress.  The biggest question could be if/when he’ll face an innings limit, having thrown just 98.0 innings a year ago.  He’s already up to 103.1 IP this season, and if they are going to hold him into the 130 range he may only have 4-5 starts left.  At the same time the Dodgers are in a fight for both the NL West (2.0 games back) and the Wild Card (1.5 games back), so they may be willing to push him further.  Monitor the situation, but for now he’s well worth using.

10) Is it officially time to move on from Robbie Ray…
Taking on the Padres he allowed 3 ER on 2 H and 5 BB, striking out 3, over 4.1 IP in what ultimately was a no decision.  Control has always been on of the bigger issues for Ray, and he’s now walked 4+ batters in three of his past four starts.  He was also struggling to generate swings and misses yesterday (7 swinging strikes), though that’s never been a concern.  The bottom line is that the control hasn’t been good, he’s been hit hard all season (42.7% Hard%) and he’s been prone to home runs (36.1% groundball rate, 1.53 HR/9).  What exactly is there to like in that profile?  There’s long-term upside, but unless things take a dramatic turn it’s impossible to trust him for the remainder of ’18.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, MLB.com