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Sell High Candidate: Is Madison Bumgarner’s Time As A Fantasy Ace Behind Us?

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by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Madison Bumgarner has long been considered one of the elite pitchers in the game, but have the injuries he’s suffered over the past two seasons eliminated the once Top 5 upside?  While he owns a 2.97 ERA over 66.2 IP this season, when you start to look at the numbers that get us there they look rather pedestrian:

  • Strikeouts – 7.56 K/9
  • Control – 3.65 BB/9
  • Groundballs – 44.2%

He’s never been a groundball machine (he owns a career mark of 44.2%), so that’s something that can be overlooked for now (though there could be home run issues).  It’s the other two, when coupled with a Hard% that’s trended in the wrong direction, that have to raise an eyebrow.

The biggest red flag is the control, as he owns a career 2.11 BB/9.  He was still solid in June, when he posted a 2.51 BB/9 over 32.1 IP, so what has gone wrong in the 34.1 IP since?  He did have one bad start (6 BB over 4.0 IP) that helps to skew the numbers.  If you take that out he’d have 12 BB over 30.1 IP, and while that’s better it’s still not overly impressive.

It’s interesting, but entering his Thursday start he had seen a significant shift in his pitch usage.  He once leaned on his fourseam fastball, but instead he’s cut that back upwards of 10% and instead has increased the usage of his curveball and changeup:

Season
Fourseam
Cutter
Curveball
Slow Curveball
Changeup
2015 49.59% 31.38% 16.69% 0.31% 2.03%
2016 48.20% 33.42% 15.06% 0.06% 3.27%
2017 42.93% 35.94% 15.59% 0.00% 5.54%
2018 37.44% 31.79% 20.51% 0.21% 10.05%

You would think those are his put away pitches, and therefore we’d see an increase in his strikeout rate and not the decrease we’ve seen.  His SwStr% of 9.3% would be the first time he was below 10% since 2012…

So far we don’t have any answers, and the trend in his Hard% just further clouds the waters:

  • 2015 – 27.8%
  • 2016 – 31.6%
  • 2017 – 35.0%
  • 2018 – 37.0%

His velocity is right where it’s been, so what’s the conclusion as to why he’s seemingly less effective then he’s been?  The 29-year old did throw over 200 innings every year from 2011-2016 and has now struggled with injuries over the past two seasons.  Is it possible that the workload and the injuries, when coupled together, have zapped him of his pure stuff and upside?

With nothing specific to point to, outside of the lack of control, can we say without a shadow of a doubt that he’s ultimately going to struggle?  Absolutely not, but with the trends in the numbers making his current .267 BABIP and 78.2% strand rate unlikely to be replicated there is significant risk.  If you own Bumgarner it makes sense to shop him now, cashing in before things go south.  When it comes to pitchers, we’d much rather sell a little too early and get full value as opposed to holding too long and ultimately getting pennies on the dollar.

Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball

Make sure to check out all of our Midseason Prospect Rankings:

First Baseman
Second Base
Shortstop
Third Baseman
Outfielder
Pitcher


Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=36948


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    • Anonymous

      There has been such a change in pitching talent. Since the only way to cash tickets is to handicap pitching, it makes it tough especially this time of year. Still betting like a madman, though! :smile:

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