Redwood not impressed with top four Conservative leadership candidates

There has been a mini rush for more MPs to declare for a candidate,creating a premier  league of four, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.  Two candidates, Kit Malthouse and James Cleverly have already stepped down, with pressure on other candidates  to do the same for want of more support. This is now a more traditional election, with growing camps for the main candidates trying to hoover up more votes and pledges by demonstrating momentum for their candidate.

Nominations close on  June 10th. The first round ballot is on 13 June, the second round on 18 June, the third round on 19 June and rounds four and five if needed on 20 June.  That would allow for a seven candidate race with just one dropping out at each stage and two winners to go on to the contest amongst the membership or for a more numerous field if more than one drops out between rounds owing to the new thresholds or candidate choice. It is likely we will not need rounds beyond June 20th.  It would be worrying if we got to a last two only for the second placed candidate  to do a deal to prevent a membership run off.  Under the rules the race in the country can be eliminated by candidates colluding or changing their minds, as with the last leadership election.

I have now seen and heard a range of views from members of the Wokingham constituency. 50 came to a reception and  others have emailed or spoken to me.There is no one stand out candidate commanding great support, with many members saying they do not know a number of the candidates and do not therefore wish to commit to one particular one at this early stage. Boris Johnson is the best known and attracted the most mentions wanting him on the ballot paper,  but his numbers were still in single figures with most do not knows.

I have now had the opportunity to talk to Dominic Raab, one of the two candidates in the front runners list who resigned from the government over the Brexit policy being pursued by Mrs May. He took the job of Brexit Secretary knowing the PM’s commitment to the Withdrawal Treaty.  He voted for the Withdrawal Agreement on the third vote despite having strong reservations about it. He states clearly that as PM he would get us out by October 31 with or without an Agreement. He also says he has a preference for an Agreement and thinks it should be possible to renegotiate it with the EU despite their repeated statements to the contrary.  He wants changes to the backstop and some other matters, but seems willing to countenance a two year delay in exit and  making further substantial payments to the EU. These views make it difficult for me to vote for him.

Michael Gove has repeated his support for the Withdrawal Agreement, and said he would countenance a further delay in our exit to try to get a better deal. He seems to think he might be able to renegotiate the Treaty, and seems to imply the only really bad feature of it is the Irish backstop which he would like to time limit. These views make it impossible for me to vote for him. Both these candidates have interesting views of a range of other topics,  but if we cannot get out of the EU promptly and cleanly the policies we follow post Brexit will be drowned out by disappointment and continuing rows over Brexit. The general view of most of the candidates is in favour of relaxing austerity, with some tax cuts and some spending increases, as recommended regularly on this site.

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This is something that Alastair Meeks has mentioned a few times that it only needs three Tory MPs to switch sides for the Tory/DUP majority to be wiped out and I’m fairly confident there’s more than three Tory MPs who will do whatever it takes to stop a no deal Brexit.

With the likes of Andrea Leadsom and Dominic Raab openly talking about acting like a modern day Charles I and proroguing Parliament to ensure (a no deal) Brexit on Halloween you can see why Parliament would have no confidence in certain winners of the Tory leadership race. I cannot see Parliament having confidence in someone committed to a no deal Brexit in October.

I think if Parliament declares it has no confidence in the new Tory leader we could see any of the following, a government of national unity to sort out Brexit, or more likely a new general election. So Mrs May ends remaining Prime Minister for the duration of the general election campaign whilst her successor as Tory leader fights the general election.

With the Lib Dems and Brexit party surging in the polls and the Tories hitting rock bottom in the polls there’s no desire for an early general election in the Tory party so Tory MPs might end up backing as leader someone who does not become tumescent over no deal, that should benefit Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Matt Hancock, and Rory Stewart.

This could have serious implications for several betting markets, I’m fortunate that most of my bets are on next Tory leader whilst I’ve been active in laying the next Prime Minister market. Given the complications of Theresa May’s exit markets I suggest if you’re betting on the next Tory leader/PM markets you check the precise rules/markets, different bookies can have slightly different definitions.

If you’re constitutional expert or lawyer this might be an even more exciting and profitable time for you. There’s a beautiful irony that Boris Johnson’s declaration that he would exit from the EU, deal or no deal, on Halloween might ensure he becomes Tory leader but stops him from becoming Prime Minister.

TSE

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