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Some International Evidence For Keynesian Economics Without The Phillips Curve

Wednesday, May 22, 2019 2:57

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from Voxeu.org

– this post authored by Roger Farmer and Giovanni Nicolo

The economies of many countries are operating close to full capacity, but unemployment and inflation are both low. Using data from the US, UK and Canada, this column compares diﬀerences in the macroeconomic behaviour of real GDP, the inﬂation rate and the yields on three-month Treasury securities in the three countries. It shows that the Farmer monetary model, closed with a belief function, outperforms the New Keynesian model, closed with the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The data fit the multiple equilibria emphasised in the Farmer model well, rather than the mean-reverting processes assumed by the New Keynesian model.

Source: http://econintersect.com/pages/analysis/analysis.php?post=201905220110

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