Best Player Props for Ravens-Bengals on TNF

Thursday Night Football in the bank ought to be a good one. The Ravens and Bengals have already provided us with one of the games of the year in the NFL so far, and now they square off again in primetime with the whole world watching. The stakes are high in this division matchup as a sweep of the season series against the ever-dangerous Bengals would put the Ravens in a great position both in the division race and the AFC playoff picture. Every sign is pointing to a lot of points in this matchup. The last meeting, as we all know, resulted in a 41-38 shootout, both offenses put up 41 points a week ago, and both defenses leave a lot to be desired at this point in the season. Vegas certainly agrees with this sentiment as the O/U for this game is set at 52.5, the highest of any game this week. Points are great when it comes to player props, so Thursday Night presents us with a great opportunity to keep building off the success we’ve had this season.

We swept the board going 5-0 in our player props earlier this season vs Cincinnati. In an important rematch, here are the props I’ll be taking this go round in Baltimore.

Let’s Stay Hot!

Lamar Jackson Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-135 ESPN Bet)

Lamar Jackson has played the best football of his career so far this season, especially as a pure thrower. Coming off a game where he threw for 280 yards on just 19 attempts and tied the NFL record with his 4^th perfect passer rating, Lamar’s passing yards prop sits at 224.5. A home primetime game against the Bengals feels like a great spot for Lamar to continue his dominant stretch. Lamar is 9-1 against the Bengals in his career, and most recently threw for 348 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions against them as he carried the Ravens to victory. Lamar hasn’t gone under this total since Week 4 against the Bills. Don’t overthink it and bank on Lamar to continue playing at an MVP level (Side Note: Primetime Lamar Jackson in the Bank debuting the alternate jerseys with the new helmets feels like a cheat code. It’s inevitable).

Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110 ESPN Bet)

The only threat of Lamar falling short of this number Thursday night is if Derrick Henry is the one who caps off multiple scoring drives. That exact scenario unfolded last week however, and Lamar still threw for three touchdowns. Good things happen when Lamar has the ball in his hands. Per NFL Pro, Lamar has generated +.30 EPA per drop back this season, 4^th most by a QB in the Next Gen Stats Era (the other quarterbacks to finish in the top 5 all won MVP). This is an absurd stat. It only takes Lamar four drop backs to generate the value of a whole point in an NFL game. Along with the endless advanced stats and metrics out there that outline Lamar’s greatness, the raw numbers are there too.  His 20 passing touchdowns are tied for second in the league, and in a rematch against a team where he tossed four touchdowns in their building just a few weeks ago, O 1.5 feels like a safe bet here.

Zay Flowers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120 ESPN Bet)

Zay Flowers’ breakout season is officially upon us. Since Week 5, Zay leads the NFL in receiving yards, which includes a one-catch game in Tampa where he rolled his ankle early in that game. The Jackson-to-Flowers connection has reached a new level over the last few weeks, particularly up the seams. Per NFL Pro, Flowers has generated +25.7 receiving EPA on targets in the seams traveling over 10 yards, which is the third most by any player at this point in the season since 2018. The Bengals have allowed 25 such completions for 553 yards, which is 5^th most in the NFL. Todd Monken has identified a particular style of offense which allows Zay to get the ball in areas of the field where he can do damage. Adding Diontae Johnson to this WR corps will allow the Ravens to deploy Zay wherever they want and pick their own matchups. Defenses are forced to respect the Ravens’ dynamic run game as well, which will always lead to open space down the field. 59.5 yards is a mark I feel very comfortable taking here for Zay, especially with the day we anticipate Lamar having.

Joe Burrow Over 36.5 Passing Attempts (-110 ESPN Bet)

This is a must-win game for the Bengals. We are not early in the season anymore and a loss here would put them two games under .500 and at least three games back in the division. Simply put, the Bengals cannot afford to leave anything on the table. They know how lethal the Ravens offense is; they’ve seen it first-hand. If they want to be able to keep up with Lamar Jackson and company, they will need to put the ball in their own star quarterback’s hands early and often. This pass-heavy approach worked for them in the Week 5 matchup, as Burrow completed 30 of his 39 pass attempts for 392 yards and five touchdowns en route to hanging 38 points in a losing effort. Additionally, Chase Brown is coming off a game where he received 27 carries, 12 more than he’s ever had in an NFL game. Perhaps the Bengals, anticipating a short week, were calculated in that approach knowing they will need to lean on Joe Burrow Thursday Night.

Derrick Henry Longest Rush Over 19.5 Yards (-110 ESPN Bet)

We are officially on ‘ride this bet until the wheels fall off’ mode for this prop. We have taken it four times, and it has yet to fail us. The Ravens rushing attack as we all know is second to none, averaging 2.9 yards before contact per carry this season which is the most in the NFL by any offense since 2018 (Per NFL Insights). This stat is even more impressive when you consider the fact that the Ravens are one of only three teams to face a loaded box on over 50% of their offensive plays. No matter how you line up, the Ravens offense has the advantage. Henry doesn’t need much space to get to the second level, and defenses can never completely sell out to stop him since the threat of Lamar will always be there. If the Bengals get caught out of position or are too slow to the point of attack on any given play, Henry will exceed this mark for us for the 5^th time in as many tries.

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/11/06/sports-betting/best-player-props-for-ravens-bengals-on-tnf/