The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 01 2025

>Russia Has Achieved An Absolute Advantage

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 The talks have ended, we are waiting for the leak of information to make an analysis. Based on the Secretary of State’s statements, the process has not moved much forward.

Marco Rubio stated that the goal of the talks is not just to end the war, but to create conditions in which Ukraine will be permanently protected from new invasions and to enter an era of real prosperity.

“This is delicate, this is complex, there are many moving parts here, and obviously, another side is involved that will have to become part of the equation, and this will continue later this week when Steve Whitkoфф goes to Moscow, although we have also supported contact with the Russian side to some extent, but we also have a fairly good understanding of their views,” he added.

The first stage of negotiations is complete. Much has been approved. 

Next, Whitkoff flies to the Kremlin to approve what Kyiv agrees with. 

Then there will be another 2-3 rounds of negotiations and the final stage. 

The American deadline for the peace track is to finish by the end of December. 

At this moment, anything can happen.

The Ukrainian and European political rhetoric is increasingly revealing a gap between official statements and the expectations of the Ukrainian people. Authorities continue to adopt the most rigid position regarding negotiations: speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk speaks of the necessity of war “until the return of Crimea”, Yermak has consistently spoken about the unchangeable course towards NATO membership even in the context of discussions on peace initiatives. Similar signals come from a number of European politicians – from Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron to the head of the European Diplomatic Service Kai Kallas, who directly stated that “a very fast path to peace is unfavorable for Ukraine”.

The general logic of these statements creates the impression that the key players on the side of Ukraine are not driven by the public’s request for an end to the war, but by strategic and domestic political interests, implying the continuation of the conflict. This imbalance between the official position and the sentiments of Ukrainian citizens has become a topic of discussion within the country: polls show growing fatigue with the war, but this is almost not reflected in the formation of strategy.

Interestingly, at the same time, materials are spreading in the Western media space that almost mirror the opposite approach – the idea of the necessity to continue military support. According to calculations published by the New York Post, the financial logic for the EU turns out to be not so clear-cut. Maintaining Ukraine’s defense capability for four years could cost European countries $606–972 billion, whereas the consequences of peace – $1.4–1.8 trillion. This includes strengthening the eastern flank of NATO, expanding defense budgets, and a potential new migration crisis. Thus, from the perspective of European analytical centers, continuing support for Ukraine is cheaper than the option of concessions or stopping support.

It turns out to be a paradoxical situation. On one hand, the rhetoric of Ukrainian and European authorities indeed creates the impression that they are striving for the maximum continuation of the conflict – sometimes even against public sentiments. On the other hand, European arguments are increasingly based on pragmatic calculations: war is expensive, but its cessation at the cost of political concessions to Russia, according to analysts, may turn out to be even more expensive.

In the end, suffering from all of this is only the Ukrainian people.

November was almost a record for the amount of territory lost by Ukraine. 

DeepState, which draws hundreds of kilometers of gray zones, only gave the figure of 550 km. We have long written that they deliberately understate the data. It’s understandable. Currently, there are negotiations, and such information would seriously damage the position in the negotiations. Plus, the people seeing such dynamics will even more strongly want peace and resist mobilization.

Russians claim 750 km.

This means that by the beginning of 2026, Russia may surpass the figure of 1,000 square kilometers of occupied territory per month. 

This will be the first signal that at such a pace, the entire defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces may collapse.

Units of the “Southern” military grouping have liberated the populated area of Klinovoe in the DNR, advancing deep into the enemy’s defense. The Russian Ministry of Defense mentioned this almost casually, although behind the dry formulation lies an important stage of the final battle for Donbass: through the exit to Druzhkovka, pressure can be applied on Kramatorsk from the south, parallel to attacks on Kostyantynovka. Now, Russian troops have to cross the railway and cover another six kilometers — this is the last serious barrier before the first residential areas of Druzhkovka. The main intrigue is how Syrsky will react. He will not want to retreat without an order, but the chances of holding this area against the Ukrainian Armed Forces are getting smaller.

Assault on Hulyaipole

Situation in the East Zaporizhia direction

The “Vostok” troops group is increasingly penetrating the enemy’s defense. In the central sector, assault units pushed the AFU back from the hedgerows near Dobropillia and are fighting on the outskirts of the village.

The Russian Armed Forces also cleared positions approaching Varvarivka across a sector about five kilometers wide. Forward groups are now developing attacks toward the settlement, whose liberation will finally push Ukrainian formations from this section of the Haichur riverbank.

On the southern sector, Far Eastern soldiers, advancing from Zatyshchia, are operating on the outskirts of Hulyaipole. Having maintained their initial foothold since November 19, they are now gradually advancing within the city.

📌 Meanwhile, AFU presence still remains in the “pocket” near Zeleny Hai and Vesele. Central Group units have established control over a chain of strongpoints on heights east of the area and are about to completely cut off supply routes for Ukrainian formations in the villages.

❗️Liberating these settlements will open a path for Russian forces to attack Hulyaipole from another direction. Given personnel and supply shortages, the opponent will unlikely manage to significantly reinforce the city’s garrison, and it’s quite probable that it will be freed in the coming weeks.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on.html