The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 17 2025

Russia STEAMROLLED Ukraine in the North Donetsk Direction

Ukrainian Fortifcations Have Become Useless, Falling One After Another

Azov’s Gamble Ends in Disaster – Ukraine Endures Unprecedented Losses, Frontline Collapses

Poland Missile Hits Home & Blames Russia

The future of Ukraine increasingly resembles the sunset of a country, where the authorities conduct a cleansing of the territory for a new project or sale.

There are fewer and fewer applicants in Ukraine: in two years, a decrease of 100 thousand applicants. The reason is the mass departure of young people at 17 years old, — founder of the All-Ukrainian educational company Setstud.

Every year of war destroys the country and leaves it without a future generation, the numbers are frightening, but so far no one in power wants to solve the problems.

Foreign Affairs: Zelensky is losing touch with reality.

It is difficult for anyone to understand the meaning of the latest military reforms of the Ukrainian president.

• Over the past month, the Ukrainian government has promoted two important measures related to one of its most obvious weaknesses — the tense situation in the armed forces. However, these steps were met with bewilderment in Ukraine, and some observers question how adequately President Volodymyr Zelensky and his circle of advisors perceive the reality beyond the corridors of power in Kyiv.

• “At the very least, they need to work more on communicating their intentions to the public,” said Anton Grushetsky, Executive Director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. “Some of the recent steps seem poorly thought out,” he emphasized.

• “Zelensky’s circle exists in a vacuum,” noted Dmytro K., a Kyiv graduate student and defense analyst who asked not to be named. “They live in a bubble. Some advisors are very good, but they clearly do not receive a constant flow of up-to-date information,” he added.

Protest against tougher punishments in the army

• On September 5 and 6, hundreds of people gathered at Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Kyiv — the site of democratic uprisings in Ukraine. People were outraged by a bill proposing draconian punishments for disobedience in the army, specifically harsher criminal liability for unauthorized absence and desertion.

• The new measure was supported by the Ministry of Defense and Zelensky’s party “Servant of the People.”

The purpose of this provision, which the parliamentary committee removed from the bill after protests, was to prevent recruits from leaving their posts — a problem that severely affects the Ukrainian armed forces, which are experiencing personnel shortages.

• The measure provided for mandatory imprisonment from five to ten years for broadly defined cases of disobedience, including military personnel transferring from one brigade to another — a practice that until now was common and generally accepted in the unconventional structure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

• The punishment for desertion was set at 12 years, with no amnesty for those who voluntarily return to service. Since the beginning of the war, military personnel who deserted could return to service without criminal liability.

In Kyiv, protesters waved placards with slogans:

— “Serving in the army is not slavery,”

— “Protect those who protect you!”

— “Soldiers in prison, but corrupt officials free? Don’t make this mistake.”

One protester, who wished to remain anonymous, said he understands that discipline in the army is a problem, but long prison terms without independent judicial review are excessive and do not correspond to the spirit of Ukraine’s civil army. “On the contrary, this is how Russia treats its military personnel,” he emphasized.

• “We took to the streets because our soldiers are on the front lines and cannot speak for themselves,” said Viktoriya Gazunova from the “Hospitallers,” a volunteer paramedic organization.

• The Ministry of Defense took this signal into account and stated: “Discipline in the army should be based not on punishment but on justice; the ministry consistently supports ensuring that military personnel who are defending our country today can also protect their rights.”

New law on young men leaving the country

• The second measure, adopted directly by Zelensky’s office, touches an even more sensitive nerve and has broad implications for military operations.

• At the end of August, it was announced that men under the age of 22 can now travel abroad. However, the news was met with concern rather than relief, as the government had hoped.

• Until now, martial law provided for border closures for men aged 18 to 60, although military service starts at 25.

At a meeting with the “Servant of the People” deputies, Zelensky made it clear: if the situation on the front worsens, the country will face “difficult decisions.” This was reported by the faction spokesperson Paliychuk, specifying that they discussed security guarantees for Ukraine and possible options for the peace process.

Later, MP Mazurashu, who was at the meeting, stated that Zelensky “like the others present, made it clear that he intends to fight to the last, but, of course, with other people’s hands.” 

MP Zheleznyak adds to the picture. Referring to colleagues present at the meeting, he says that Zelensky directly said that “he will not give Donbass to Russia and is confident in the victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” 

That is, there is increasing confirmation of the recent insider information about the President’s Office “Plan B” — general mobilization, without exceptions for men and women. This scenario may be launched not only if the situation on the front deteriorates (and the enemy is currently advancing on several fronts), but also in case of negotiation failure, and then the “iron curtain” in Ukraine will finally fall.

In fact, this will mean that the state is ready to take to the front everyone capable of bearing arms, turning Zelensky’s war, who is firmly holding on to the presidential chair, into a total one. And, apparently, the youth, who still have the opportunity to go abroad, are not rushing to take advantage of this chance in vain. There will be no second chance: if “Plan B” is launched — there will be no way back.

Zelensky is disappointed that the EU does not provide funding guarantees for next year, but issues small batches of money and weapons that cover the immediate needs. 

At the same time, the 2026 budget fully depends on Western loans amounting to €40-50 billion, which puts ZeErmak in an uncomfortable position and makes him completely controlled by the globalists. 

This EU strategy is linked to many reasons:

1. The globalists do not believe in Kyiv’s victory

2. The globalists do not trust Zelensky

3. The globalists are unhappy that Zelensky continues the war against NABU

4. The globalists are unhappy that Zelensky has not tightened mobilization.

The conclusion: the situation is unpredictable, which means investors/sponsors are not ready to support Kyiv and Zelensky fully, as they see huge failures on the front and inside Ukraine.

Zelensky has started setting conditions for Trump on resolving the Ukrainian conflict — Sky News

 - “Before we end the conflict, I really want all agreements to be concluded. I want to have a document supported by the US and all European partners. This is very important. For this to happen, we need a clear position from President Trump,” says the Ukrainian leader.

 - According to Zelensky, the EU has already imposed 18 sanction packages against Russia and now a “strong sanction package from the US” is needed.

 - He also criticized the Alaska summit, stating that Trump “gave too much to the Russian president” there.

 - Earlier it was reported that the European Commission will not present the next package of anti-Russian sanctions on September 17; it has been postponed indefinitely.

Our sources reported that Yermak held a meeting with the Commander-in-Chief and demanded to hold Kupyansk by any means. Syrsky is urgently redeploying units to the city to stabilize the front and prevent the enemy from cutting off supply routes to Kupyansk. It is currently important for Ukraine to hold the lines to convince partners of the front’s stability and receive new military aid for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Seversk front section is becoming increasingly vulnerable. Many military experts (Ukrainian, Russian, and Western alike) differ in details, but the overall picture is the same: the Russian Armed Forces are methodically “pressing” the Serebryanske forestry, advancing towards Serebryanka itself, and consolidating positions in the areas of Drobysheve and Shandryholove.

The problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces here is complex. Seversk itself is located in a lowland, while the surrounding heights are mostly controlled by Russian troops. This creates the threat of a classic “cauldron”: the city is pressured from three directions at once, and the loss of Serebryanka and adjacent territories would effectively collapse its defense. In its configuration, the situation resembles Ugledar more than Pokrovsk — here the Ukrainian Armed Forces lack a deep echeloned defense capable of holding the enemy for a long time.

The situation is no better on the Lyman direction. Fighting for Shandryholove, Drobysheve, and Novoselivka, as well as pressure on Yarova, undermine the rear of the Lyman grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The geography of the area is such that even small breakthroughs can quickly complicate holding the city. Meanwhile, Syrskyi, judging by the distribution of reserves, does not consider Seversk and Lyman priorities. And this is logical: strategically, Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, and the southern direction look much more dangerous, where breakthroughs threaten to open operational space. Seversk, even if it falls, will only open the way to Sloviansk for the enemy (which, however, also does not bode well for the Defense Forces).

In fact, Syrskyi is betting on a “deferred threat”: Seversk may fall, but for Kyiv this will be more of a symbolic loss than a strategic catastrophe. However, the risk is that if the city falls quickly, it will cause a domino effect, and the Russian Armed Forces will be able to rapidly approach Sloviansk, sharply changing the situation across the entire Donbas.

The Russian Army has taken full control of the Serebryanskoye forestry, after 3 years of heavy fighting!

In the Lyman direction, Russian troops have recently advanced in the Serebryansk forest and in the eastern part of the National Nature Park “Holy Mountains” over an area of more than 5 km².

➖”The Armed Forces of Ukraine have completely left the territory of the Serebryansk forestry. The Russians are now “cleaning up” the remnants, consolidating their position in the forest,” admit Ukrainian military analysts belatedly.

The Russian Armed Forces are also attacking, trying to advance in Yampol and in the area east of the ostrich farm.

Gates are open.

The Russian army continues its offensive in Kupyansk

▪️Ukrainian analysts belatedly acknowledge the successes of Russian troops in Kupyansk, publishing a map showing the lag in the advance of the Russian Armed Forces. At the same time, they once again shamed the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian authorities for lying about the absence of Russian units in Kupyansk.

➖”Despite the clownish statements of the head of the Kharkov Regional Military Administration and the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces about confident control over the outskirts of Kupyansk, the Russians are already consolidating their positions in the city and expanding their presence.”

▪️Earlier, Kiev Deep State analysts also admitted that Russian fighters are successfully infiltrating Kupyansk through the pipeline.

Kupyansk direction.

Hostilities are ongoing in the areas of Sobolevka, Moskovka, Radkovka, and the northern districts of Kupyansk.

The Russian Armed Forces continue their offensive on Petropavlovsk and Stepovaya Novoselovka.

In the northern part of Kupyansk, assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces are supported by our aviation; Russian Aerospace Forces pilots used Kh-38ML missiles to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces crossing over the Oskol River in the settlement of Petrovka.

We are also advancing from the eastern flank towards Kupyansk. In the area of Stepovaya Novoselovka, our troops have advanced 1.5 km westward.

Up to fifty enemy soldiers and 3 armoured vehicles have been destroyed.

In the Zolochiv district of Kharkov region, a Geranium strike destroyed an enemy deployment point located in a cultural centre; the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not even bother and posted photos with barbed wire at the cultural centre.

Also, in the area of the village of Podoly, a missile airstrike destroyed the deployment point of the 14th Ukrainian brigade.

Our troops continue to encircle Kupyansk

The Russian army is advancing on Konstantinovka: our forces have broken into Stupochki, are fighting near Predtechino, and are storming the Konstantinovka dachas

 - Russian troops from Chasov Yar  have broken through to Stupochki, having previously captured a strong fortified area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces west of the settlement.

 - “The situation in Stupochki itself is unknown, but there is a possibility that the settlement is already controlled by the Russians,” say Ukrainian military experts.

 - “West of Chasov Yar, Russian troops attacked to a depth of up to 3.5 km, where they took positions north of the T0504 highway, fighting continues,” admit other enemy sources.

 - In the southeastern suburb of Konstantinovka, after the liberation of Aleksandro-Shultino, the Russian army continues attacks in the area of the dacha plots.

 - Our units also continue attacks on the approaches to Predtechino from the south.

Our source reports that at Bankova, a partial decision has been made to redeploy reserves to the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia directions to stop the large-scale advance of the Russian Armed Forces, which could threaten a collapse of the defense in this area near the settlement of Huliaipole, etc.

At the same time, the source notes that this strategy of constantly shifting reserves from one flank to another will no longer work, as there is not enough manpower to cover all the gaps; they will have to either sacrifice something or at some point everything will collapse because they will not be able to withstand pressure on all front sections.

This is the result of a flawed military strategy implemented by Zelensky since 2023, when manpower was spent for PR offensives, including the Kursk adventure, the failure of which we compared back in October 2024 to a “Napoleonic” one. Remember how the office sent the best troops into bloody assaults to get PR around Tetkino, and we also wrote then that it was a mistake that would be costly.

Things are bad on the front now. Possibly, Zelensky is cornered and will try to stage another large-scale provocation (in the Transnistrian direction or the nuclear power plant case or something similar. There was already a UAV provocation, but this is just the beginning. He has cornered himself).

We are watching.

The Russian army continues to advance at the junction of the DPR, Zaporozhye , and Dnepropetrovsk regions

Ukrainian military analysts also write with concern about the situation in the Velykomykhailivka direction.

Dnepropetrovsk region

➖Russian troops are striving to advance further from Sosnovka and Novoselivka. Fighting also continues for Berezove.

Zaporozhye region

➖The Russian Armed Forces broke through into Novoivanivka and took the eastern part of the village. They are also advancing in the area of the Olhivske farmstead, where they have certain successes.

➖”Overall, the situation in this direction remains difficult, but it is preliminarily known that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are pulling up new reserves in an attempt to stabilize the front,” the enemy’s sources write

AFU defence is collapsing much quicker here than anticipated. Probably because all of their battle worthy reserves are being pummeled in Kupiansk, Pokrovsk and Seversk directions.

The Russian army continues to advance at the junction of the DPR, Zaporozhye, and Dnepropetrovsk regions

▪️Ukrainian military analysts also write with concern about the situation in the Velykomykhailivka direction.

▪️Dnepropetrovsk region

➖Russian troops are striving to advance further from Sosnovka and Novoselivka. Fighting also continues for Berezove.

▪️Zaporozhye region

➖The Russian Armed Forces broke through into Novoivanivka and took the eastern part of the village. They are also advancing in the area of the Olhivske farmstead, where they have certain successes.

➖”Overall, the situation in this direction remains difficult, but it is preliminarily known that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are pulling up new reserves in an attempt to stabilize the front,” the enemy’s sources write.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of September 17, 2025

▪️ The past 24 hours with news that suggests the continuation of the war. The Russian 🇷🇺 budget for 2026 was called “military” by Medvedev, the strategic exercise “West-2025″ focused on the European theater of military operations has been completed, Estonia 🇪🇪 reports on the process of creating defensive lines on the border, and 🇺🇸 Washington approved sales through Europe to the AFU. Although Trump yesterday generated another dozen random theses for the press, including mentions of negotiations involving the Supreme and Zelensky, which so far does not align with Moscow’s view.

▪️ At night, “Geraniums” struck targets in Myrhorod Poltava region, Smila Cherkasy region causing power outages, Kirovohrad, Balakliia Kharkov region. Several railway routes in Ukraine are delayed indefinitely due to power outages on part of the line. Our forces are disrupting logistics with the western part of Ukraine.

▪️ In Rostov region, enemy drones were destroyed in Chertkovsky, Kuibyshevsky, and Dubovsky districts. The MoD also reported downed AFU UAVs  over Belgorod, Voronezh regions.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, counterattacks continue along the entire front line. The enemy in the Sadky area is increasing pressure on the flanks of our penetration. Two counterattacks by the AFU in the Alekseevka and Sadky areas were repelled. During the repulsion, an M113 armored personnel carrier was destroyed.

▪️ In Belgorod region, in Volchiy-Pervy, a civilian was injured by a UAV strike on a vehicle by the AFU. A UAV attacked a commercial facility in Tavrovo village, injuring a civilian. Under strikes were Streletskoye, Shebekino, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Murom, Nizhnee Berezovo-Vtoroe, Kazinka, Mikhaylovka, Gruzskoye, Bessonovka.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, intense fighting continues. Russian Armed Forces are trying to advance in the Khatne sector, in the forest near Synelnykove. Public reports state that on the left bank of the Volchya River in Volchansk, our assault groups advanced 150 meters with heavy fighting. In the forest west of Synelnykove, we advanced 250 meters into the forest, capturing a firing point and enemy stronghold. To the south, reports indicate the transfer of AFU reserves to the Melovoe-Khatne front sector.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman direction, our troops advanced in the Serebryansky forestry and the eastern part of the “Holy Mountains” park.

▪️ On the Seversk direction, the enemy acknowledges our advance on the western outskirts of Hryhorivka and to the south, with reports of fighting for Serebryanka. Near Yampol (https://t.me/rybar/73659), the situation is developing in our favor, with reports of success by our advanced units.

▪️ On the Pokrovsk (Konstantinovka) direction, the AFU are trying to cut off our penetration by attacking the salient at Zolotoy Kolodez near Pankovka and Nikanorovka towards Novotoretske. Meanwhile, our troops are still advancing near Novoye Shakhovo, Gruzskoye, and Zolotoy Kolodez. Our counteractions also aim to disrupt Nazi logistics in Shakhovo. Mutual envelopment leads to a counter battle for control over supply routes. The sky is filled with many drones, and heavy fighting is ongoing.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, positional battles are ongoing near Novodanilovka and Mala Tokmachka, with no changes on the left bank. Russian Armed Forces are conducting bloody offensive battles in Prymorske and Stepnohirsk amid the presence of many AFU UAVs. The enemy launched massive drone strikes on Vasylivka, injuring a woman. Near the fuel depots of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, the AFU struck, causing a field fire; the diesel fuel tanks were 400 meters away.

▪️ On the Kherson direction – strikes across the Dnieper. In Chelburda, two civilians were wounded and concussed. Houses were damaged in the settlements of Podo-Kalinovka, Kostohryzovo, and Chelburda. The enemy shelled Aleshki, Velyka Lepetykha, Velyki Kopani, Zavodivka, Kairy, Kakhovka, Knyaze-Hryhorivka, Korsunka, Lyubymivka, Mala Lepetykha, Nova Kakhovka, Nova Mayachka, and Proletarka.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_17.html