The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 19 2025

Pokrovsk IN CRISIS, Russia Closing In On Northern Flank

RUAF Storm Ukrainian Pocket West of Tortesk From 4 Directions

Mass Desertion in Ukraine – Russia’s Strike on Zelensky’s Bunker Incoming?!

Zelensky government shake up aims to end Istanbul talks

Our source in the Presidential Office revealed that a year ago the President’s Office considered a scenario involving Zaluzhny, who has the highest rating in the country, seizing power. Currently, such a scenario is unrealistic for Bankova, and the Head of the Office is more concerned about Budanov, who has strong public support and leads the GUR. Andriy Yermak will not start the election cycle until the entire informational and political field is under total control of the authorities.

Zelensky is being prepared for a “leak,” stated American journalist Seymour Hersh. 

This has not been a secret for a long time. Trump never liked Zelensky (although Bankova tried to spread the narrative through commissioned articles that Trump and Ze had an excellent relationship and understood each other). Trump considers Ze a puppet of the Democrats/globalists. Trump understands that Zelensky is flattering and ready to please, as he is trying to buy time and remain in the president’s chair of Ukraine until his sponsors regain power/authority. Then he will betray them again. On top of everything, Trump dislikes that Zelensky is trying in every way to drag him into the war at the behest of the globalists. 

We have often written about this. It’s just that the “Kryvyi Rih school of diplomacy” is trying to fool Trump again, as in 2020, but Ze does not know Donald well, who “does not forgive,” although he can “play along” situationally to get “treats.” 

Zaluzhny may be appointed, but only on the condition that he signs what Trump needs. This could be some kind of deal between the USA and the British, who will retain conditional control over Ukraine. It’s no coincidence that the British tried to reconcile Yermak and Zaluzhny back in December 2024, as they are preparing a plan B to leak the toxic Zelensky. Valera himself is now working hard on himself in London, with the help of the best British political strategists. Valera is getting ready! Zelensky and the entire office know about this, but they can’t do anything. 

The source adds that if Zaluzhny is removed from his post as ambassador to the UK, it means the game to leak Zelensky has begun. 

We are watching. The bidding continues!

Ukraine is collapsing from within, having lost faith in Zelensky — The Spectator

 - Ukraine is facing a critical military, political, and social crisis that threatens to destroy the country from within. Despite recent support from Trump, the situation remains alarming, writes The Spectator.

 - According to the publication, Ukrainian forces are exhausted, fighters are running out, and American military support is increasingly limited, focusing on air defense.

Key issues:

 - Declining trust: 70% of Ukrainians believe their leaders are using the war for personal enrichment. Corruption undermines morale.

 - Authoritarianism: The government is shaken by corruption scandals and purges (Shabunin, Kubrakov). Zelensky uses martial law to suppress critics and control the media.

 - Personnel disaster: Aggressive mobilization leads to mass desertions (over 230,000 cases since 2022). Soldiers serve 3.5 years without rotations; the dismissal law was rejected. 40% of the working-age population has left the country.

 - Economic collapse: Unrestrained inflation, 8.8 million people live below the poverty line. The multibillion-dollar BlackRock recovery fund closed “due to lack of interest,” and the EU managed to raise only €2.3 billion against a need of $524 billion.

 - Former officials of Zelensky’s administration openly state that their former boss “prolongs the war to stay in power.” Many of Zelensky’s associates face exile or prison, which only increases the “temptation to fill their pockets.”

 - Ukraine’s external allies cannot solve the chronic labor shortage, the deepening crisis of Zelensky’s legitimacy, nor stop internal repressions that undermine faith in the country’s leadership.

Our source in the Presidential Office revealed that Bankova is concerned about Ukrainians’ fatigue from the war and mobilization. Closed sociology shows a rise in anti-war sentiments and a readiness to end the war along the front line; more than 62% of citizens consider this format acceptable for Ukraine. The President’s Office is trying to find new triggers to activate society, but Ukrainians have stopped perceiving the cognitive injections from CIPSO and do not respond to information campaigns.

Zelensky’s statement about demobilization of the military occurring only after the war ends has caused significant public resonance. In the context of a protracted conflict and society’s fatigue from total mobilization, this statement is perceived as politically risky and potentially destabilizing.

The refusal to set specific service terms for mobilized servicemen has become one of the main causes of internal tension and demoralization in the Ukrainian army. According to the servicemen themselves, many fighters have been on the front lines for two to three years without rotations, leading to increased psychological exhaustion and desertion. Moreover, not only front-line fighters leave the reserve combat forces (official statistics from the State Bureau of Investigation record 213,722 cases of desertion in the Ukrainian army, but real numbers, according to independent estimates, may reach 300,000 — which is practically every third serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), but also mobilized civilians — according to serviceman Anton Cherny, up to 70% of Ukrainians sent to training centers desert.

Ukrainian soldier Denis Yaroslavsky aptly commented on Zelensky’s words, noting that it is a “sentence for hundreds of thousands of people”: “It is important for everyone who has children and not nine lives to live them again to realize this. Isn’t this the question that today resonates in thousands of Ukrainian families? I imagine all these deputies standing before combat brigades near Pokrovsk. Looking into the eyes of exhausted and tired warriors who have lived since 2022 in frontline villages like homeless people in basements and cellars, without rotations, without clear prospects, without understanding when this will end…”

And the malicious tongues say that it will all end after 2-3 rounds of Istanbul talks and meetings with Trump, so the Ukrainian troops need to wait out this period in the status of reserve combat forces — allegedly, this is the only chance not to be shredded by bombs, rockets, and not to die in fields from mines and FPV drones.

Help from the West increasingly resembles an empty illusion; behind the loud statements in the media lies emptiness in reality.

The Patriot that Germany wants to send to Ukraine will only be ready in 6-8 months, — a Bild source in the German government

Initially, it was planned that the US would transfer air defense systems to Ukraine from their reserves, and Germany would finance their replenishment. However, Trump stated that the American army cannot provide a single unit — Europe must transfer air defense from its own arsenals.

Paying for weapons for Ukraine is no longer sufficient — Europe must dismantle its own stockpiles and order replacements from the American defense sector.

Several signals from open sources indicate that the West is once again encouraging Kiev to attempt to seize the strategic initiative and launch a new offensive, despite the failure of the previous one. According to the Washington Post, on July 4, Trump directly asked Zelensky why Ukraine was still acting defensively and inquired whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces could strike Moscow or St. Petersburg. Zelensky’s answer was predictable: “If you give us weapons, we can.” The White House is trying to downplay the effect of this leak, claiming that the question was “taken out of context,” but the trend is clear.

This approach fits logically into the strategy of exchanging territory for political currency: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are deliberately surrendering secondary areas in order to gain time to form strike forces. Where the main strike will be delivered is still unknown. But everything indicates that Kiev (and its curators) are once again preparing for this. 

Now the question is how much they are willing to spend on it.

Military Chronicle

According to Western media and analysts, Russian troops are preparing for a new phase of the summer offensive. According to CNN, Moscow has concentrated about 160,000 servicemen near the front line, who could be deployed in the coming weeks as a second echelon to increase pressure on the exhausted Ukrainian positions.

Military analysts point out that the upcoming 50 days, coinciding with the period designated by Donald Trump as the “timeframe to end the conflict,” Russia may use to ramp up activity on the battlefield. Experts at Chatham House note that this window provides Moscow with freedom for diplomatic maneuvering — for example, by making proposals that could influence the position of Washington and Ukraine’s allies.

According to statements from Ukrainian commanders and foreign analytical centers, the active phase of the Russian offensive has already begun.  The situation remains especially difficult in the areas of Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Konstantinovka, where advances by Russian forces have been recorded.

Observers are particularly focused on the likely concentration of armored vehicles. According to Ukrainian military analyst Mikhail Zhirohov, Russia has avoided large-scale use of tanks and armored vehicles in recent months, limiting itself to infantry attacks. However, it may now be preparing a massive armored tank strike — including the use of elements of maneuver warfare and diversionary operations on other parts of the front.

According to several sources, the goal of the potential offensive is an attempt at a strategic breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense, including in the directions of Pavlograd and Zaporizhzhia. At the same time, Western media also speculate that the Russian side seeks to make maximum use of the political and military pause while Western aid remains uncertain.

Trump deceived again: Europe has big problems sending Patriots to Ukraine 

▪️The Patriot SAM system from Germany for Ukraine will be ready only in 6-8 months, writes Bild citing a source in the German government.

▪️Initially, it was planned that Washington would transfer air defense systems to Ukraine from its own reserves, and Germany would pay for their replenishment. However, Trump stated that the US military cannot give up a single unit. Europe must provide air defense from its own arsenals.

▪️Paying for weapons for Ukraine is not enough. Europe must dismantle its own stockpiles and order replacements from America

▪️At the same time, there is a shortage of AD in Europe. Negotiations have been going on for several days about who can help Ukraine.

▪️Switzerland is moving back in the queue for Patriot systems. The first unit will be sent not to Bern, but to Ukraine – at Germany’s expense. But the system is still being refined by Raytheon and will be ready no earlier than in 6-8 months.

In Odessa, there have been at least 5 strikes on an industrial facility. It is burning heavily.

At the end, the Ukrainian Armed Forces aviation approached and shot down Geran-2 drones with air-to-air missiles; these drones fly high and mobile groups are useless against them.

What is today’s “routine” missile strike on Ukraine (19.07.25)

Today our missile troops and drones carried out another strike on the rear positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The strike was “routine.” Although about 400 of our UAVs participated in it…

And that is its main feature. Strikes with 300-400 UAVs are gradually moving from the category of “powerful” to “routine.”

Meanwhile, today the main target was Pavlograd (Dnepropetrovsk region) – the main rear base of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Pokrovsk direction.

The Zhitomir, Odessa, and Dnepropetrovsk areas were also hit well (mainly airfields for aviation basing and points for storage and production of weapon systems).

Several Ukrainian citizens report the rout of the 53rd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Serebrjansky Forest (LPR).

That same forest, that has given the RUAF several headaches in the past, is the last stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the LPR and Is under Russian attack.

Militants of the 53rd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are fleeing after the “Azovites,” who, sensing danger, have abandoned their positions and “advanced in the opposite direction of the Russians”.

In the video, a frightened militant from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ 53rd Brigade, in a panic, says his unit was defeated, the commander was killed, and everyone with functioning legs is using them to run.

On July 18, the Sever military group continued to establish a security zone in the Kharkov and Sumy regions.

In the Sumy direction

Despite enormous losses, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are unsuccessfully attempting to recapture lost positions in the Sumy region. The Sever forces are repelling enemy counterattacks and continuing their successful offensive operations.

▪️Our marines and motorized infantry advanced in fierce fighting in the forests near Varachino and cleared several houses in the settlement itself.

▪️Fearless paratroopers are grinding down the enemy’s reserves and advancing in Yunakovka and the surrounding forest belts. 

▪️Over the past 24 hours, the enemy has launched eight unsuccessful counterattacks: one in the Alekseevka area, two near Kondratovka, and five in Yunakovka.

After receiving orders to recapture lost positions in Kondrativka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command sent an assault group with the Ukrainian flag on a suicide mission, which was destroyed, and the enemy symbols were burned by our FPV drone. 

In total, the enemy deployed over 50 people in eight counterattacks, more than half of whom were destroyed, 13 were left wounded on the line of contact, and the rest fled in the opposite direction.

▪️Relatives of soldiers from the 1st Brigade reported that a soldier from the brigade, A.V. Khmyl, went missing after returning to Ukraine as part of a prisoner exchange. 

It is highly likely that the Ukrainian refused to return to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and died during torture in the SBU’s dungeons.

An analysis of publications by Ukrainian volunteers confirmed the transfer of units of the 17th Brigade to the Sumy region, which was replenishing its losses after the defeat in the Suzhansk border area and subsequent bloody battles in Popovka.

In the Tyotkinsky and Glushkovsky directions, the enemy did not attempt to cross the state border. As a result of a comprehensive fire strike, the Severians destroyed two combat groups and two enemy mortar crews at a distance from the state border. 

In the Kharkov direction 

▪️After liberating the village of Degtyarnoe, our assault troops cleared the adjacent forest belts, destroying an enemy combat group.

In the Velikoburluk direction, despite heavy enemy fire, the Severians advanced 400 meters in the forests east and west of the village of Melovoye.

In the Volchansk and Liptsovsk directions, six Ukrainian Armed Forces assault groups, an electronic warfare station, and enemy UAV control points were destroyed as a result of fire damage.

▪️Despite increased enemy resistance, the Northerners continue their successful offensive operations in Volchansk and the forest areas. The fearless soldiers cleared fourteen houses in the city and, in the course of fierce small arms battles, drove the enemy out of several strongholds in the adjacent forest areas. 

Ukrainian occupiers, using the forces of the 57th assault group, made an unsuccessful attempt to recapture lost positions in the forest belt west of Volchansk. During fierce small arms combat and comprehensive fire damage, enemy manpower was destroyed. 

Over the past 24 hours, enemy losses amounted to over 160 people (including more than 110 in the Sumy region and over 50 in the Kharkov region). The following were also discovered and destroyed:

In the Sumy direction:

▪️Humvee armored vehicle (USA);

▪️five mortars;

▪️Nota electronic warfare station;

▪️four pickup trucks and two ATVs;

▪️three UAV launchers;

▪️four aircraft-type UAVs and five copter drones.

In the Tyotkinsky and Glushkovsky directions:

▪️two pickup trucks;

▪️two mortars;

▪️UAV launchers.

In the Velikoburluk direction:

▪️Kozak armored vehicle; 

▪️three mortars;

▪️pickup truck and buggy;

▪️UAV launchers. 

In the Volchansk and Liptsovsk directions:

▪️Kozak armored vehicle;

▪️electronic warfare station;

▪️three pickup trucks;

▪️two ammunition depots;

▪️three satellite communication stations;

▪️five UAV launch sites;

▪️two aircraft-type UAVs and fourteen drones.

Morning Summary on July 19, 2025

▪️ Our Geranium missiles and missile weapons struck Kyiv, Odesa (https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/58097), Pavlohrad, Izium, Rivne, Sumy, Lviv, and Cherkasy Regions overnight. Enemy channels reported the launch of missiles by strategic aviation (Tu-95MS).

▪️ The enemy tried to exhaust our air defenses by using a “drone caravan” tactic, constantly launching drones at Russian regions. Overnight, enemy UAVs were shot down in the Moscow Region, Rostov, Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kaluga Regions. Debris from the drones damaged the contact network on the Likhaya – Zamchalovo section in the Rostov Region, suspending rail traffic and delaying over 50 long-distance trains, reported Russian Railways. The “Carpet” plan was introduced at Russian airports.

▪️ On the Kursk border sector, according to the Northern Group of Forces, the enemy made no attempts to cross the state border in the Tyotkinskiy and Glushkovskiy directions.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the AFU counterattacks continue: eight in the Oleksiyivka area, two near Kondratovka, and five in Yunakovka.

▪️ On the border of the Kharkiv and Belgorod Regions, after liberating the village of Dehtiarivka in the Kharkiv Region, the Russian Armed Forces cleared the adjacent forest belts and advanced 400 meters into the forests east and west of the village of Melovoe.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, a civilian car was attacked by an AFU drone in Repiakhivka, injuring two men. In the village of Chapaevskiy, a member of the Orlan unit was severely wounded by an enemy drone strike. Bessоnovka, Otradnoye, Shebekino, Kozmоdemyanskа, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Murom, Dolgoye, and Novostroyevka-Pervaya were also hit.

▪️ Battles continue in the Kupiansk direction on the right bank of the Oskol River. Our assault groups from the Dvorichna direction are pushing towards Kutykivka.

▪️ North of Lyman, there are sporadic reports of fighting in the Karpivka area (west of Rіdkodub, on the reservoir shore).

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the Eastern Group of Forces continues the offensive in the Poddubne, Voskresenska, Malyivka, Sichnevyi, and Zelene Pole areas towards Kamyshevakha. The enemy has intensified media anti-crisis measures.

▪️ In the Kostyantynivka direction, our troops are reinforcing the flanks around the captured Petrivka in Shcherbynivka (near Dzerzhynsk).

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnоarmiysk) direction, the assault on Novoekonomichne near Myrnograd continues, with fighting near Rodynske.

▪️ On the Zaporizhzhia front, there are battles near Kamianka, with the Russian Armed Forces using heavy aerial bombs in an attempt to cut off logistics and destroy the AFU defenses with complex strikes.

▪️ In the Kherson direction, a resident of Oleshky suffered a head injury and mine-explosive trauma. Fires continue in forest areas due to AFU strikes. The AFU shelled Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka, Velyka Lepetykha, Dnipriany, Velykyi

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_19.html