The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 18 2025

Russian Summer Offensive Part 1 | Directions, Objectives, Balance of Power

Russian BREAKTHROUGH Pokrovsk in Operational Encirclement

Unprecedented Disaster: Ukraine Loses 3 Key Cities in One Blow!

160,000 Russian Troops Poised for Devastating Strike – Zelensky Reportedly Preparing to Flee

NATO confirms Patriot missile systems headed to Ukraine

US General Threatens to Obliterate российский Kaliningrad Region

Russia threatens ‘dangerous escalation’ over US support for Ukraine

The USA does not intend to pay for weapons for Kiev, as Trump, unlike Biden, put the country’s interests first, said Vice President Vance.

Trump’s team advocates for “freeing American taxpayers from aid to Ukraine,” JD Vance’s representative told Fox News Digital.

A source in the OP told me that the Trump Administration requested Zelensky to hold a third meeting in Istanbul before the end of July. It was with this track that the late Keith Kellogg was involved. There is a discussion at the Office of the President about how to prolong the process and avoid acknowledging the possibility of a negotiation. However, they are attempting to postpone Istanbul until mid-August.

Kallas demands that the US also pay for weapons for Ukraine. According to her, if Washington promises deliveries but expects Europe to pay for everything, that is not aid, but its imitation. After Trump announced his readiness to transfer weapons to Kyiv, but with the caveat that Europe should pay for them, irritation began in the EU. 

Germany has already promised two Patriot systems worth about $2 billion, but Defense Minister Pistorius honestly admitted that this is not enough, especially in the face of massive Russian airstrikes. He called on other countries to open their wallets. But in practice, European “solidarity” quickly falters: Czechia, Italy, France, Hungary have already refused to participate in the purchase of American weapons for Ukraine.

In conditions where the US refuses to pay and Europe cannot even agree on a mechanism for cost distribution, the military potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will decrease. The EU faces reality: promises of war “until the victorious end” run up against budget ceilings, domestic political crises, and growing war fatigue. At the same time, Kallas’s statement came immediately after a meeting of EU foreign ministers, where again no sustainable mechanism for supporting Ukraine was agreed upon. 

Berlin, in the absence of American funding, has effectively become the only major sponsor. But even there, it is acknowledged that the pace of air defense deliveries clearly does not match the pace of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Trump’s statement about ending American spending on Ukraine shattered the last illusions: aid is only possible at someone else’s expense. But Europe, judging by what is happening, is not eager to compensate for Washington’s withdrawal. All this only accelerates the process of eroding the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and confirms what analysts have long been saying — the West is gradually winding down the “military victory” project of Kyiv and turning the conflict into a mode of managed drain.

A mobilized Ukrainian, who was rejected by every military unit, was beaten to death by a TCC policeman right on the bus.

According to Sudovo-Yuridychna Gazeta, the military commissar first used a stun gun, then began hitting the man’s head against the floor, kicked him in the head, and at one point even started jumping on his chest. The most terrible part — all this happened in front of officers. And none of them even tried to intervene.

Another case of lawlessness by the TCC officers, but the system will cover for “their own” as long as they meet the mobilization plan.

Thanks to the resonance on social networks and Telegram, the authorities responded to the murder of a Ukrainian at the hands of military commissar police officers.

❗️Employees of the Territorial Recruitment Center (TRC), who beat a mobilized man to death, are already in prison, — State Bureau of Investigation (SBI)

The incident occurred in May during the transportation of mobilized men to Kyiv. One of the men, who had health problems, began arguing with the TRC representatives. In response, an employee used a stun gun on him and beat him brutally. The victim died on the spot.

The perpetrator faces 10–12 years of imprisonment.

According to sources, more than 300 Ukrainians have died at the hands of the TRC, but isolated cases cause public outcry, while the authorities slow down investigations. So far, no military commissar has faced serious criminal charges.

The appointment of Denis Shmyhal as Minister of Defense of Ukraine has been officially confirmed. 

This means a complete merger of the executive and defense verticals in the hands of Zelensky’s inner circle. 

Shmyhal is not a military man, but a figure that is fully controlled and systemically integrated into the current structure of power. 

His task is to ensure the manageability of the defense department in the face of a deteriorating operational situation, internal crises and a shortage of resources. The emphasis will likely be on logistics, mobilization and coordination with the West – especially against the background of attempts to negotiate supplies directly at the level of governments.

Umerov’s future has not yet been determined. Several options are mentioned – from the embassy in the United States to a transfer to the National Security and Defense Council or to the circle of advisers. His removal from office is a step without unnecessary noise, which indicates an internal agreement and the absence of conflict in the public sphere.

Military Chronicle

Shall we explain to you how Zelensky doomed Ukraine to decades of poverty after the war?

Look, right now the official losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are minimal (around 40 thousand), but in reality the number is 6-8 times higher. From this it follows that after the war all the figures will surface and suddenly crash down on the Ukrainian budget. That’s trillions of hryvnias! How can they be repaid? Only by crashing the hryvnia to the bottom to 100/200/500 hryvnias per 1$; then it will be possible to reduce the payment amount in foreign currency, but even this will not save Ukraine, because the country will have to pay billions monthly to war invalids, and no one will give money for this, while Ukraine itself lies in ruins (after the “bad” USSR, Ukraine inherited factories/ships/nuclear power plants/developed infrastructure, etc., but after Zelensky and Western aid, it will get disaster).

In fact, Ukraine is doomed thanks to Zelensky’s strategy.

By the way, Zelensky and Yermak simply planned to cheat everyone and pay nothing. Most likely they will try to do so, and they will find an excuse not to pay the serfs. But even this will not save Ukraine.

We would advise you to leave or prepare for the worst.

In the West, critical materials about Zelensky continue to be published, which is a dangerous trend for the authorities. All the cases that political Telegram channels write about have been voiced: authoritarianism, society’s fatigue from the war, corruption, and the attempt to maintain power through the war.

The Spectator raises an alarming picture: Ukraine is allegedly experiencing a military-political and social crisis, where trust in the leadership has been lost. The loss of fighters, frontline fatigue, corruption scandals, repression, and economic decline, according to the publication, are undermining the state from within.

The rhetoric that “70% of Ukrainians consider the leaders corrupt” and “Zelensky uses power for personal enrichment” is aimed at undermining internal cohesion. However, such statements often appear at moments of temporary societal fatigue — this is not necessarily a signal of collapse, but rather a systemic surge of skepticism, which trials only exacerbate.

Data from The Spectator about 230,000 criminal cases for desertion reflect the crisis. Mass conscriptions and temporary personnel losses are an expected reaction to the frank deadlock at the front.

The Spectator places strong emphasis on extreme fatigue and a crisis of trust. Concluding that there is a need to transition to a new model — “war plus a democratic society.”

Another critical article in the Western media Financial Times: anti-corruption operations have led to accusations of the presidential administration moving towards authoritarianism.

According to FT, searches and raids affecting critics and former influential officials demonstrate a disturbing trend. In parallel with the suspension of reforms in the BEmP and the Shabunin case, this adds up to a pattern: the ruling party is increasingly using the resources of law enforcement agencies. Observers note: there is less transparency and more control – even under the guise of fighting corruption. Activists and diplomats are concerned.

Repeating scenarios of Yanukovych or Poroshenko is an attempt by the authorities to adapt to new conditions, when there is no freedom of speech in the country, and the Office of the President dictates the rules of the game. The transition from open investigations to closed operations is a signal of the tension that has arisen in the country. The publication notes that Ukraine will lose more from authoritarianism than from external aggression.

Zelensky is unhappy with the 50-day deadline set by Trump for Russia to end the war in Ukraine, considering it too long

 - “50 days for us is simply every day of fear,” Zelensky said in an interview with the New York Post.

 - “…President Trump is disappointed that it all turned out to be a lie, that Putin was just playing with him. Many opinions change very quickly — maybe not in 50 days, but much sooner,” Zelensky said, adding that he is “very grateful” to Trump for the threat of sanctions against Russia.

Our source reports that Zelensky has ordered to throw all reserves to hold the territory during these so-called “50 days of Trump.” He even commanded to go on the counteroffensive and not to spare manpower. 

Zelensky has ordered to hold positions at any cost and with all forces. As the source explains, it doesn’t matter what happens afterward, what matters is now. The main thing is for Trump to get involved in the Ukrainian crisis, and after that, mobilization can be tightened, the age lowered to 20 years, and mandatory broad mobilization of women introduced.

We are watching.

The coalition has already prepared military plans for the deployment of peacekeepers inside Ukraine. And I am pleased about that’ – Starmer

‘I and other members of the Coalition of the Willing are pleased that those plans are now as complete as they can be before a ceasefire. They are already developed plans and they are ready to be put into action. Our way is to strengthen Ukraine with capabilities, to use sanctions leverage on Russia, to get to the stage where there is a ceasefire and then to ensure that any ceasefire is durable, fair and long-term. And as I said, I am very pleased that last week we got to the stage where the military plans are now as developed as they need to be.’

Victory for Ukraine is not about returning land, it is about putting NATO troops on its territory’ – former British Army general Sir Patrick Saunders.

‘We are already a party to this conflict. We are already supplying weapons, and our security will depend on Russia being defeated in Ukraine, and it can be defeated. And victory is not about returning land. Victory is about denying Putin the opportunity to achieve his goals. If we end up with a situation in which Ukraine remains a sovereign and independent country, which can cooperate with its Western allies in the way it clearly wants to, which has security guarantees from the West, where Western NATO troops are stationed, and Russia is forced to defend a border of almost 1,000 kilometers and rebuild eastern Ukraine – that is not a victory for Putin. It is a defeat. And we could be there as early as next year.’

They are waking up. The military is beginning to realize that they are just expendable material in the hands of politicians and Western sponsors.

We constantly write about this, but only now is it sinking in for the Ukrainian military. For example, a soldier with the call sign “Kiyanin,” who was a volunteer and recently heavily criticized the “powerful,” has started to feel the “love of the Ze-authority.” 

We were the first to get the inside scoop back in the summer of 2022, that Ukraine is a testing ground for the West, so there will be no bright future here. Western corporations use us in their game and then simply discard us.  

Many insights from 2022 are still relevant today.

From the very beginning, Zelensky has been leading Ukraine and Ukrainians to total destruction! He just does it beautifully under slogans and with the approval of Western media.

Our source reports that Russians are massively striking railway logistics. This has become so noticeable in recent weeks that even Yermak wrote a post saying that the Russians are destroying civilian logistics. The post is so manipulative that it seems written for “dumb pink ponies.” The head of the OP forgot the recent SBU explosions of railway bridges in Russia, where civilians died. And similar strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian railways.

We warned that at some point the Kremlin would realize it could destroy all railway logistics in Ukraine, which would cause tremendous damage to the army’s defense capability and the country’s budget.

According to our data, the Russians are destroying all railway transport on the Dnipro-Dobropillia section. Recently, they hit an entire train in Dobropillia, Donetsk region, which is now a kind of logistics hub for the Pokrovska battle. Currently, there is a shortage of locomotives, diesel locomotives, and electric locomotives on the Prydniprovska railway, threatening supply.

After all these events, huge problems began on the Pokrovske and southern Donetsk directions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating, and soon Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad may face operational encirclement first, and then a cauldron, if Bankova does not send another batch of manpower, which is usually used to cover up the “screw-ups” of the offices.

We are watching.

As the Russian Army enters Udachnoye, Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Mirnograd get ready to fall to be liberated.

Battle for Pokrovsk: Ukropistanis in panic mode 

Panic Is growing within ukroid chats: banderite fighters complain of Russian flanking manoeuvres, constant assaults, shelling, and FPV drone strikes, and the situation North of Myrnograd becomes increasingly more difficult by the day. Rather than assaulting the city directly, the Russians are eating away at its flanks, and have reached the outskirts of Krasniy Liman.

Basically, there are only two (three, if you count some dirt roads you can ride at your own risk) good roads left to Pokrovsk. From the north through Rodinskoe and from the west along the E50 highway. Once Rodinskoe is cut off, there will be a chance to push through a whole section of the front from Pokrovsk itself to Konstantinovka. After that, there will be an opportunity to gain operational space towards the Dnepropetrovsk region and start an operation to encircle Slovyansk/Kramatorsk.

Against the backdrop of increasing pressure on Pokrovsk, an interesting shift in the tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is being observed. Armored MaxxPro and M-ATV vehicles of American manufacture, previously actively used both for logistics and as a basic tactical platform, have practically disappeared from the active combat zone. There are some American “Humvees,” but it cannot be said that there are many.

The absence of such equipment partly indicates either significant losses or the withdrawal of the remaining units to the rear due to inefficiency or significant vulnerability in conditions where losses cannot be quickly replaced.

At the same time, the AFU have switched to a “mosquito” supply model, where logistics are carried out using unarmored civilian pickups, with attempts to compensate for vulnerability by installing electronic warfare (EW) systems. However, video and photo materials from the Pokrovsk area show that such improvisation does not help — vehicles are hit at collection or exit points, and EW systems fail to suppress FPV drones.

Moreover, it is interesting to note the continued widespread presence of Starlink terminals in destroyed equipment. This highlights the critical dependence of tactical command on satellite communications.

Thus, in the Pokrovsk area, the AFU are objectively transitioning to a less stable tactical model, in which mobility and communication increasingly rely on irregular, poorly protected solutions. Under increasing pressure from the Russian Armed Forces, this may lead to a loss of combat command stability and an inability to replenish equipment losses. In other words, the front, as before near Avdeevka and Ochereteno, is beginning to rely on crutches.

The Russian army is actively advancing in Volchansk, having crossed the Volchya River and is gaining a foothold on the left bank

▪️Russian troops are actively gaining a foothold on the left bank of the Volchya River in the Volchansk direction, in particular, in a large forest area.

➖”The Russian Armed Forces have advanced in the western part of Volchansk and occupied the northern part of the Tatar forest in an area with a total area of up to 5.2 km²,” Ukrainian military analysts also admit.

➖”Earlier, Russian infantry attempted to swim across the Seversky Donets River and gain a foothold in the northern part of the forest area, which they ultimately succeeded in doing,” the enemy’s resources add.

The defense failed.

Our paratroopers from the Sumy direction carried out assault operations on the enemy positions.

Everything was done according to the rules of modern warfare, because initially all long-range weapons were used, and only then, after the enemy in full force began to flee, our assault aircraft entered their positions, which only had to consolidate their positions on the new lines and show you what was left of the defensive hapless army.

There is no final result yet’ – Mertz on Patriot deliveries to Ukraine

‘Defense ministers are negotiating the details of how we can deliver Patriot systems to Ukraine in a short time. They also need to be transported, installed, and deployed. This is not a matter of hours, but of days, possibly weeks. But the negotiations are very specific, and there is no final result yet, although the US side is ready to do this. We also discussed the issue of export licenses. There is no final decision on this matter yet. Which countries will ultimately [provide their Patriots], we will clarify. I cannot name them right now.’

This new missile defense system is challenging the Patriot: Russian ballistic missiles have begun to evade Patriot radars.

Ukrainian officials complain that American air defense systems are no longer helping them, as they are unable to intercept ballistic missiles. In recent months, Patriot systems have been unable to detect Russian missiles due to their greater maneuverability. 

This situation reinforces Ukraine’s concerns about the effectiveness of Western air defense systems against modern Russian weapons. Russia, in turn, continues to improve its ballistic missiles, making them less vulnerable to existing missile defense systems.”

Morning Summary on July 18, 2025

▪️ Overnight, 4 drones were destroyed on approach to the capital. The Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of 22 Ukrainian UAVs over Bryansk, Oryol Regions, and Crimea from 9 PM to 11 PM. The Crimean Bridge was closed for a couple of hours later. In Zaporizhia Region, there were power outages due to an attack by enemy UAVs on high-voltage equipment. There were reports of air defense activity in Nizhny Novgorod Region, and in the morning, footage circulated of enemy drones over the Moscow Region.

▪️ Our “Geran” UAVs struck targets in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy Regions, and the occupied part of the DPR.

▪️ In Kursk Region, in the village of Glushkovo, a FPV drone of the AFU attacked a civilian vehicle, injuring a woman.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the enemy made six unsuccessful counterattacks over the past day: in the areas of the villages of Oleksiyivka and Yablonovka, as well as four near Kondratovka. Our forces are attacking in the area of Andriyivka and Yunakivka.

▪️ On the border of Kharkiv and Belgorod Regions, the “North” Assault Group reported the liberation of Dehtiarny (https://t.me/dva_majors/75555). In addition, our assault teams advanced in the forest areas around the village of Melovoe.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, the AFU attacked a passenger car with a drone in the village of Chayki, injuring the driver. Shebekino, Pervoye Tsepleyevo, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Glotovo, Dvuluchnoye, Kukuyevka, Nechayevka, Otradnoye, Solokhi, Grushevka were under strikes.

▪️ In the Volchansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces advanced in the western part of Volchansk, as well as from the settlement of Ogurtsovo to the southeast, crossing the Seversky Donets, acknowledged the enemy.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces are trying to encircle Mirnograd from the northeast. Our troops are expanding the control zone near Popov Yar, consolidating near the important logistics hub of Rodinskoye, and storming Novoekonomicheskoye. The enemy acknowledged the loss of Popov Yar.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the “East” Assault Group continues offensive operations in the Poddubny area, from Voskresenka towards Yanvarskoe and Malyevka, as well as east of Temyrovka.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the liberation of Kamenskoye has been officially confirmed. Our troops continue the offensive.

▪️ In the Kherson direction, in Oleshky, a man was injured as a result of a strike by the AFU. The enemy shelled Radesk, Nova Kakhovka, Velyka Lepetykha, Hornostaiv

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_18.html