The PC

If there was any lingering doubt the rate slashing party is over, here she be. The GDP.

Turns out the economy is not dead, after all. Growth in Q3 blew all the economists away. Now, 2.6% might not sound like a lot, but it’s a long way from recession (which is below zero). That’s where we were (negative 1.8%) during the previous three-month period, so this is a big rebound, largely due to a better trade picture. Exports up, imports down.

Household spending is weak. Real estate is a mess. Manufacturing is looking better. Government is spending up a storm, especially on military stuff.

The bottom line is that we’re not comatose. “Amid the many moving parts in this report, the big bounce in headline Q3 growth is probably the most important, and should quash recession chatter for now,” says BMO economists. “Even the marked upward revisions to prior years sends a clear signal that the underlying economy has been more resilient than commonly appreciated.”

So, no interest rate cut on December 10th. The Bank of Canada will hold the line because no additional stimulus is needed, it will conclude. Meanwhile all that spending, borrowing, investing and inflating stuff the feds are doing is enough to keep the party going – cheaper money is not required. Moreover, Trump could whack us again and tariffs are still a big threat. The CBers now fear inflation more than deflation and falling prices. Even though we all have to listen to the moany laments of the Zs.

Meanwhile, of course, Cowgirl Danielle was corralled by dude Carney as Ottawa and Alberta signed a sexy MOU yesterday. It was a win on multiple fronts. The oil barons will probably get a new pipe to the coast. That dodgy Greenpeace guy with the strange hair quit the federal cabinet. We’ll chop export dependence on the Yanks. PP has less to bark about. The traitorous Wexiteers are gutted. And Carney looked like a steady, rational leader in a world where flaming crazies have been elected.

This blog told you long ago that Mark Carney is a progressive conservative. There’s no doubt now, with Freeland and Guilbeault out of the inner circle, soon to be forgotten forever, that the Trudeau days are over. Carney is demonstrating you can care about social programs, indigenous people, the environment and pronouns without being woke. He’s proving that spending and investing are different things. And you have to love his response when a reporter bugged him about the last time he talked to Trump.

“Who cares?”

In other words, we don’t dance for the American president. If Trump just wants to be a dick, we’ll find other countries and leaders to hang with. A country as vast, rich and smart as Canada will not carry water for a grifter.

Now, the TSX is up 25.57% so far in 2025 (as of this moment). We don’t have Nvidia, Amazon, Meta or the rest of the Mag 7 tech giants – which may be a good thing if a giant AI bubble has been blown. The Canadian market, in contrast, is dominated by the financial sector (some of the world’s most advanced, integrated, boring and stable banks) and resources – which Ottawa is now lavishly supporting.

Yes, housing is a swamp. Real estate costs too much and there is no price collapse coming. Mortgage rates will be staying where they are, or even edge slightly higher. The Gen Zs will not stop grousing and blaming everyone else for their failed expectations.

But the country may have turned a corner yesterday. Be proud of that. And your portfolio should own a chunk of Canada.

There are better places for your house money, kiddos, than a house.

About the picture: “Bella is a sweet but sneaky Springer born on Christmas Day 2024,” writes Nancy. “She came to us in August from a breeder outside Red Deer and we’ve had some puppy ups and downs but we are officially crazy about her!  In the photo she has just had her first swim and is in the north part of Kootenay Lake BC.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/11/28/the-pc/